Business Extra

Gulf economies and the Iran-Israel conflict: What's next?

Gulf leaders have been on alert for triggers on several fronts: for one, potential damage to nuclear sites, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, just across the pond that is the Arabian Gulf.

The Gulf has also kept close watch on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway in the Gulf where about a fifth of the world's oil flows through to power the globe, and which Iran had threatened to close.

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire, all of these are still major factors in the Gulf's economic well-being and stability.

On this week's episode of Business Extra, host Salim Essaid hears from Safaa Al-Kogali, World Bank county director for GCC countries. Let's get into what happened, what's next and what we're on the lookout for.

Oil up, stocks down: Market volatility amid Iran-Israel war

In the days since Israel started its offensive against Iran, oil prices have shot up and global markets dipped. Israel has struck nuclear sites and oil fields, and the aggression has left global markets wary of what’s to come.

Markets are holding out for the possibility of major supply chain disruptions that could have global impact.

To understand what this war means for the global economy, Business Extra host Salim Essaid hears from The National's Geo-Economics Editor Manus Cranny, and Colby Connelly, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Middle East aviation takes off

“New” is the theme in the Middle East’s growing aviation sphere: new cities, new aircraft and new markets.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) says carriers in the region are expected to post the highest net profit margin in the world this year, at 8.7 per cent.

These are strong numbers from the Middle East. But they are coming at a volatile time.

Host Salim Essaid hears from The National's own Deena Kamel and StrategicAero Research's Saj Ahmad on what to expect from air travel in the region.

Dubai real estate: Are we heading into market correction?

In the UAE, where development is the name of the game, real estate is a big deal. There's a lot of growth in the UAE, and that means questions about property.

The real estate sector in Dubai has been booming since Covid, while there is also rapid development in Abu Dhabi.

A report from the credit rating agency Fitch says Dubai property prices are expected to fall by up to 15 per cent in the second half of 2025 and into next year. But some experts say that might not be the case.

So how do these new changes in developments factor into the real estate market? We hear from Haider Tuaima, managing director and head of real estate research at ValuStrat, Cherif Sleiman, Chief Revenue Officer at Property Finder, and our own Senior Business Reporter Fareed Rahman.

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Stargate UAE: What does it mean for the future of AI?

Last week, some of the biggest names in tech announced a partnership with Abu Dhabi’s leading AI entity, G42 – a project called Stargate UAE.

It’s part of a massive new AI campus set to come online in 2026 – a Gulf iteration of OpenAI’s US-based project of the same name, which was launched earlier this year.

Also happening at the same time will be a partnership between Nvidia and the UAE’s AI investment bank, MGX, on a data centre in Europe, and another G42 partnership focused on building data centres on US soil.

All of this comes after US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf in May.

It’s arguably the dawn of a new era, not just in tech, but in the global economic and political relationships that are keeping tech at the helm.

On this episode of Business Extra, we revisit the question of AI and the Gulf, because a lot has changed in just the last few months. 

The UAE's race to 'make it' here

The UAE is in a race with itself to raise its manufacturing game. 
From machine parts to pasta, there is one goal: Make it in the Emirates.

That also happens to be the name of an event taking place in Abu Dhabi this week, showing what UAE manufacturing has to offer.

It’s part of a larger push by the country to be less reliant on international trade, aiming to expand and diversify the UAE economy and make manufacturing as one of its strongest pillars.

On this episode of Business Extra, we're hearing from an expert and an innovator to learn more about the UAE’s national push, what it offers and how entrepreneurs can benefit from it.

What do Trump's business deals in the Gulf mean for the region and the US?

US President Donald Trump’s historic trip to the Gulf has come to an end – but the business deals announced during it will have a lasting impact.

Mr Trump’s tour was a whirlwind of mega-announcements, including $200 billion in commercial deals with the UAE, a $600 billion package with Saudi Arabia and a record aircraft order from Qatar Airways.

In this episode of Business Extra, host Sarah Forster is joined by The National’s Geo-Economics Editor Manus Cranny to break down what it all means for the future of US-Gulf relations and tech ambitions, and look at how economic interests are now shaping diplomacy between the US and the Middle East.

Why is Jordan burdened by external debt?

The Jordanian government owed 44.8 billion dinars in public debt as of February this year. That’s more than $63 billion.

It’s not $36 trillion dollars like the figure blinking on the US debt clock. But for a country like Jordan, where debt makes up more than 92 per cent of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund, that number hits differently.

Jordan is now at a crossroads.

With US financial aid frozen in President Donald Trump’s second term, and pressure mounting from lenders like the IMF, Jordan is now forced to do more with less.

And that is in a region plagued by conflict, inflation, and youth unemployment. Jordan’s debt has been creeping up for years. And now, the country is an example of how aid and borrowing can become lifelines – but also long-term liabilities.

It lacks a thriving industrial base, relies heavily on imports, and does not have a strong supply of natural resources. For decades, aid, especially from the US, served as a financial safety net.

Today, we’re asking how did Jordan get here, and how it can get out of it. 

Recession fears evoke deja vu. The Middle East might be safe.

It's been a time of tumult on Wall Street – at the hands of the White House.

US President Donald Trump made his plans for tariffs known on the campaign trail, but their scale has taken the world by surprise.

The sweeping tariffs sent global markets into chaos. Then, with the announcement of a 90-day pause, things calmed down. But that hasn’t done much for perhaps the greatest fear among investors and the public: the possibility of recession.

We’ve heard about so-called recession indicators – particularly as they pertain to the US. Here in the Middle East, though, the outlook might not be so grim.

On this episode of Business Extra, we explore the basis of the recession fears and what that means for markets and, ultimately, consumers.

Sanctions on Syria: a look back, a way forward

For more than a decade, Syria has been under international sanctions aimed at pressuring Bashar Al Assad’s regime. But there is a longer history of sanctions on the country and the broader Middle East.

Sanctions can be used as a nudge – or shove – from government to government, usually during times of war.

But their impact continues into periods of relative peace, trickling from the highest ranks of the ruling class down to the labourers and families that make up the backbone of a country’s economy. We have seen sanctions ravage Syria’s economy on and off since the 1970s, and hold throughout 14 years of civil war.

But following the fall of Mr Assad in December 2024, Syria has a new government, a new head of state and a caretaker cabinet that has promised to rebuild.

In this episode of Business Extra, we are looking at sanctions on Syria, the complexities of these measures and how the country’s economy might evolve after they are lifted.